伊朗會(huì)輸?shù)襞c以色列的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)嗎？為什么以色列在與伊朗作戰(zhàn)時(shí)如此自信？如果伊朗摧毀以色列，美國(guó)會(huì)介入嗎？

Veto F. Roley
This is the problem Iran has in fighting Israel: It doesn’t share a land border with Israel. Iran’s best force is its army and Republican Guards. The Iranian Navy has a little over 100 floating obxts (aka ships), but the largest ships they have are seven frigates and five corvettes. Even though Iran has 31 amphibious ships, getting troops to Israel would be extremely problematic. And, it’s Air Force is stuck in 1979 when the Untied States cut off all further supplies and equipment to Iran due to the government-sponsored Iranian Hostage Crisis.
 
這是伊朗與以色列作戰(zhàn)時(shí)面臨的問(wèn)題：它與以色列沒(méi)有陸地邊界。伊朗最強(qiáng)大的力量是其陸軍和革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)。伊朗海軍擁有略多于100艘浮動(dòng)物體（即艦船），但他們擁有的最大艦船是七艘護(hù)衛(wèi)艦和五艘巡防艦。盡管伊朗有31艘兩棲艦船，但將部隊(duì)運(yùn)送到以色列將非常困難。而且，伊朗的空軍仍停留在1979年，當(dāng)時(shí)由于政府支持的伊朗人質(zhì)危機(jī)，美國(guó)切斷了對(duì)伊朗的所有供應(yīng)和設(shè)備。
 
Now, the same issues plague the Israeli Army and Navy. However, one of the more famous Israeli missions is the Entebbe Hostage Rescue, although that was a few decades past. Israel probably still has the capability of mounting long-range ground raids on foreign targets. but can not invade Iran. Israel’s Air Force, on the other hand, is a modern air force and can strike at Iran.
Given the country’s limitations to hit each other, Israel has probably won the war and all Iran can do is admit the obvious.
 
現(xiàn)在，同樣的問(wèn)題困擾著以色列的陸軍和海軍。然而，以色列較為著名的任務(wù)之一是恩德培人質(zhì)營(yíng)救，雖然那已經(jīng)是幾十年前的事了。以色列可能仍然具備對(duì)外目標(biāo)進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)程地面突襲的能力，但無(wú)法入侵伊朗。另一方面，以色列的空軍是一支現(xiàn)代化的空軍，能夠?qū)σ晾拾l(fā)動(dòng)打擊。鑒于兩國(guó)互相攻擊的局限性，以色列可能已經(jīng)贏得了這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，而伊朗只能承認(rèn)這個(gè)明顯的事實(shí)。
 
Michael Cummings
Israel currently has complete air superiority over Iran and Iran has killed… 20 Israeli civilians. So this war is effectively over. Iran proved to be a paper tiger. The only question at this point is whether Israel can knock out Fordow (or Fordo), the heart of Iran’s nuclear program, which is buried in a mountain. I think Israel will try to create as much chaos in Iran as possible, then land troops at Fordow to try to take it out. But either way, Iran is in a really tough spot at the moment. Let’s just say — things didn’t go as they’d hoped.
 
以色列目前在空中完全控制伊朗，而伊朗已經(jīng)殺害了… 20名以色列平民。所以這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)實(shí)際上已經(jīng)結(jié)束。伊朗證明自己不過(guò)是紙老虎?，F(xiàn)在唯一的問(wèn)題是，以色列是否能摧毀Fordow （或Fordo），伊朗核計(jì)劃的核心，該設(shè)施埋藏在一座山里。我認(rèn)為以色列會(huì)盡可能制造混亂，然后派遣部隊(duì)前往福爾多，試圖摧毀它。但無(wú)論如何，伊朗現(xiàn)在的處境非常艱難。我們可以說(shuō)——事情并沒(méi)有按照他們的預(yù)期發(fā)展。
 
Ego Kar
Israel simply has no reason to invade Iran. Even if it had the opportunity. Infantry and ground forces in general are brought in when they intend to occupy a country and force it to sign a capitulation. When infantry enters, the territory is considered occupied. Israel has a completely different task.
 
以色列根本沒(méi)有入侵伊朗的理由。即使有機(jī)會(huì)，步兵和地面部隊(duì)通常是在打算占領(lǐng)一個(gè)國(guó)家并迫使其簽署投降協(xié)議時(shí)才會(huì)被派遣。當(dāng)步兵進(jìn)入時(shí)，領(lǐng)土就被視為占領(lǐng)。以色列有完全不同的任務(wù)。
 
TriStar Associates
Nobody wants to invade Iran. The US is no longer in the failed mission of nation building. The Us will get involved to destroy the Fordo bunker complex. They will also destroy the rest of Iran's ballistic missiles, and probably kill Khamenei. With virtually no Air force, no nukes and no ballistic missiles and no cash the Iranians would be toothless, and left to their own devices. The Iranians were sick of living under the thumb of religious zealots and can now voice the way they want their country to go, but it will be without nukes.
 
沒(méi)有人想入侵伊朗。美國(guó)不再參與失敗的建國(guó)使命。美國(guó)將參與摧毀福爾多地下堡壘。它們還將摧毀伊朗剩余的彈道導(dǎo)彈，并可能殺死哈梅內(nèi)伊。伊朗幾乎沒(méi)有空軍、沒(méi)有核武器、沒(méi)有彈道導(dǎo)彈、也沒(méi)有現(xiàn)金，伊朗將變得無(wú)力，只能任其自生自滅。伊朗人已經(jīng)厭倦了生活在宗教狂熱分子的控制之下，現(xiàn)在可以表達(dá)他們希望國(guó)家發(fā)展的方式，但這將是沒(méi)有核武器的。
 
Jesson Jesse
Instead of devoting resources from the immense oil wealth in innovation modern technology and building a modern airforce it went after Nuclear stuff knowing how deadly it is…
 
與其將巨大的石油財(cái)富資源投入創(chuàng)新現(xiàn)代技術(shù)和建設(shè)現(xiàn)代空軍，伊朗卻選擇追求核武器，明知道它有多么致命……
 
David Crauswell
The question is that once this is over, will anything have actually changed? Will Iran still have its nuclear program? Will it still fund international terrorism? Will the ayatollahs still be in control? Israel may have given Iran a bloody nose in response to its surrogates in HAMAS and Hezbollah attacking Israel over the years, but otherwise we’ll be right back here within a few years—or even months.
 
問(wèn)題是，一旦這一切結(jié)束，是否會(huì)發(fā)生實(shí)際改變？伊朗是否還會(huì)繼續(xù)發(fā)展其核計(jì)劃？它是否還會(huì)資助國(guó)際恐怖主義？大阿亞圖拉們是否還會(huì)繼續(xù)掌控政權(quán)？以色列可能因?yàn)楣R斯和真主黨多年來(lái)襲擊以色列而給予伊朗一次沉重的打擊，但除此之外，幾年后——甚至幾個(gè)月后，我們還會(huì)回到原點(diǎn)。
 
Hussain
Iran has dropped it's nuclear program and wanted to negotiate deal with the US. No credible agency, including the US Intelligence, believes that Iran is anywhere closer to building a nuke. So if Iran survives this war, their first priority would be to get a nuke.
 
伊朗已經(jīng)放棄了它的核計(jì)劃，并希望與美國(guó)達(dá)成協(xié)議。沒(méi)有任何可信的機(jī)構(gòu)，包括美國(guó)情報(bào)部門(mén)，相信伊朗離制造核武器還有多遠(yuǎn)。所以，如果伊朗在這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中存活下來(lái)，他們的首要任務(wù)將是獲取核武器。
 
Phil Downey
Iran missed its opportunity to invade Israel after the destruction of the Assad regime and Hezbollah. That’s not to say it would have succeeded, but the land bridge is now gone and Iran as neither the airlift nor sea lift capacity to invade with troops.
 
在阿薩德政權(quán)和真主黨被摧毀后，伊朗錯(cuò)失了入侵以色列的機(jī)會(huì)。這并不是說(shuō)伊朗一定能成功，但陸橋已經(jīng)消失，而伊朗既沒(méi)有空運(yùn)能力，也沒(méi)有海上運(yùn)力來(lái)用部隊(duì)入侵。
 
Thus, the war will be who uses missile and drone tech to greater effect. Israel has exponentially more weaponry because the USA GIVES NOT SELLS, Israel virtually any weapons system, right down to bullets upon demand. However, Israel is a compact space and thus presents an easier target. Iranian targets are spread far and wide. Likely Israel has done a better job of securing strategic targets underground in reinforced bunkers.
 
因此，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將是看誰(shuí)能更有效地使用導(dǎo)彈和無(wú)人機(jī)技術(shù)。以色列擁有比伊朗多得多的武器，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)幾乎無(wú)條件地向以色列提供任何武器系統(tǒng)，甚至是子彈。然而，以色列是一個(gè)狹小的地方，因此更容易成為目標(biāo)。伊朗的目標(biāo)則分布廣泛。很可能，以色列在將戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)埋藏在加固的地下碉堡中做得更好。
 
Regardless of the outcome, it appears that Netanyahu has picked a fight that will cost Israel dearly. The question will be, was it was it worth it. The Iranians, like the Jews have a long memories (the embassy take over was largely revenge for the USA orchestrating the overthrow that enthroned the Shah). Stay tuned.
 
不管結(jié)果如何，看來(lái)內(nèi)塔尼亞胡挑起的這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將會(huì)讓以色列付出沉重代價(jià)。問(wèn)題是，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)值不值得。伊朗人，像猶太人一樣，擁有很長(zhǎng)的記憶（美國(guó)策劃推翻以色列前國(guó)王的政權(quán)，導(dǎo)致了大使館事件的發(fā)生，這在某種程度上是復(fù)仇）。敬請(qǐng)關(guān)注。
 
Vincent K.
Iran will win the war against Israel, without the intervention of US. The Iranian retaliations, have shaken the confidence of Israel, and expose that Israel is not as invincible, as advertised with its defence systems.
The coward, strucking preemtively, have fled to Greece, for personal safety. Knowing it cannot fight Iran alone, is now crying for help from US.
The possibility of a WW3 is now probable, if US escalate this Israel / Iran war, and closing of the Hormuz straits, by Iran which might drive up the price of oil, might hasten the WW3 process.
 
如果沒(méi)有美國(guó)的干預(yù)，伊朗將贏得與以色列的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。伊朗的報(bào)復(fù)已經(jīng)動(dòng)搖了以色列的信心，暴露了以色列并不像它所宣稱(chēng)的那樣無(wú)敵，尤其是在防御系統(tǒng)方面。那些膽小的、先發(fā)制人的攻擊者，已經(jīng)逃往希臘，為了自身安全。知道自己?jiǎn)为?dú)無(wú)法與伊朗作戰(zhàn)，現(xiàn)在卻在向美國(guó)求救。如果美國(guó)升級(jí)這場(chǎng)以色列/伊朗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，并且伊朗封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致油價(jià)上漲，這將加速第三次世界大戰(zhàn)的爆發(fā)。
 
Rajagopalan K Suryanarayan
Iran is one of the big nations with vast land mass in West Asia. Also one of the powerful nations with powerful army. Initially Iran thought it can annihilate Israel with its own size and its forces. Though Iran is countering Israel’s attack with equal force, this has been reducing as the days of conflict progress. We see destruction everywhere in Iran. Nearly 1100 sites with economic interest and infrastructure have been destroyed within Iran. Iran now looks desolate
 
伊朗是西亞地區(qū)領(lǐng)土廣闊的大國(guó)之一，也是一個(gè)擁有強(qiáng)大軍隊(duì)的國(guó)家。最初，伊朗認(rèn)為憑借自己的規(guī)模和軍力可以摧毀以色列。盡管伊朗以同等的力量反擊以色列的攻擊，但隨著沖突的延續(xù)，這種力量正在減少。我們看到伊朗到處都是毀滅。伊朗境內(nèi)大約有1100個(gè)具有經(jīng)濟(jì)利益和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的目標(biāo)已被摧毀?，F(xiàn)在，伊朗顯得荒涼。
 
Teheran, the capital of Iran is sinking with huge attacks from Israel. The entire Teheran is unlivable. People are fleeing Teheran too. Teheran is converted into a rubble.
 
伊朗的首都德黑蘭正遭受以色列的巨大攻擊，整個(gè)德黑蘭變得無(wú)法居住。人們紛紛逃離德黑蘭，德黑蘭已經(jīng)變成廢墟。
 
There is no stopping of Israel’s attack on Iran. Israel acquired air superiority. Also all the air-defense systems have been done away with in Iran. There is no hurdles for Israel to enter or exit Iran. Israel has taken control of Iran’s sky. With most of the airbases destroyed beyond repair, Iran is unable to take out its Jet fighters to challenge Israel.
 
以色列的攻擊沒(méi)有停止。以色列已取得空中優(yōu)勢(shì)，伊朗的所有防空系統(tǒng)都被摧毀。以色列可以隨意進(jìn)出伊朗，不再受到任何阻礙。以色列已經(jīng)掌控了伊朗的天空。大部分空軍基地已被摧毀，無(wú)法修復(fù)，伊朗無(wú)法派遣戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)去挑戰(zhàn)以色列。
 
Israel also killed most of the commanders, advisers of Khomeini and the Scientists. Iran is afraid of naming the commanders openly. Khomeini is hiding in a bunker, fearing his own life. Iran is not in a position to destroy Israel, unless Iran has clandestinely procured a nuclear war head from either Pakistan or North Korea. This cannot be ruled out.
 
以色列還殺死了大部分霍梅尼的指揮官、顧問(wèn)和科學(xué)家。伊朗害怕公開(kāi)提及這些指揮官的名字。霍梅尼躲在一個(gè)地下掩體里，害怕自己的生命。除非伊朗從巴基斯坦或朝鮮秘密獲取了核彈頭，否則伊朗無(wú)法摧毀以色列。這一點(diǎn)不能排除。
 
DINESH KOWSHIK
The Supreme Leader was so busy with Allah, bluff, bluster, hyperbole and delusions that he even started believing them. He forgot that wars are not fought with purple prose. You need an airforce and missiles which can penetrate the air defenses of the enemy. Confronting Israel with a ground force and a Navy is impossible given that they are separated by several thousand kilometers of land. And Mossad is something else all together.
 
最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人忙于宗教信仰、虛張聲勢(shì)、夸大其詞和妄想，甚至開(kāi)始相信這些言辭。他忘記了戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)不是用華麗的詞藻來(lái)打的。你需要一支空軍和能夠穿透敵人防空系統(tǒng)的導(dǎo)彈。面對(duì)以色列，單憑陸軍和海軍是無(wú)法勝任的，因?yàn)閮蓢?guó)相隔數(shù)千公里。而摩薩德則更是不可小覷。
 
Stephen Cataldo
Israel fears:
— terrorism
— nuclear weapons hitting Israel.
Iran is far away and otherwise can’t reach Israel with too much else, though the missiles are more than nothing.
 
以色列的恐懼：
— 恐怖主義
— 核武器襲擊以色列。
伊朗距離以色列較遠(yuǎn)，其他手段也無(wú)法輕易威脅到以色列，盡管導(dǎo)彈威脅并非微不足道。
 
Iran does not fear:
— nuclear weapons when it guides and trains and arms proxy terrorist attacks like October 7.
— obviously doesn’t fear boots on the ground invasions from tiny and far Israel.
 
伊朗不擔(dān)心：
— 核武器在指導(dǎo)、訓(xùn)練和武裝代理恐怖襲擊（如10月7日事件）時(shí)的使用。
— 顯然不擔(dān)心來(lái)自一個(gè)小而遙遠(yuǎn)的以色列的地面入侵。
 
Iran is threatened by:
— targeted strikes on key facilities and people.
So this is asymmetric: Israel’s fears were happening already, Iran was a major initiator of October 7 when Israel was not attacking Iran, Iran was working towards nuclear weapons before the attacks: everything Israel feared was already happening. Biden kept the lid on Netanyahu: all the Israeli nationalists are furious at the lack of support from the guy who the street-left called “GENOCIDE Joe,” so the center and restraint and the agreements to not build nuclear weapons have all collapsed.
 
伊朗的威脅：
— 對(duì)關(guān)鍵設(shè)施和人物的定點(diǎn)打擊。
因此，這是一場(chǎng)不對(duì)稱(chēng)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)：以色列的恐懼早已存在，伊朗在10月7日事件中是主要的發(fā)起者，而那時(shí)以色列并未攻擊伊朗，伊朗在襲擊前就已經(jīng)在推動(dòng)核武器的研發(fā)：以色列所擔(dān)心的一切早已發(fā)生。拜登制止了內(nèi)塔尼亞胡的激進(jìn)行為：所有以色列的民族主義者對(duì)“種族滅絕喬”（街頭左派所稱(chēng)的拜登）的支持缺乏感到憤怒，因此以色列的中心派和克制派，以及不發(fā)展核武器的協(xié)議，全部崩潰了。
 
It’s worth noting that both Israel and Iran (and the US, and likely Gaza) have contentious leadership hated by something close to half their nation. We’re seeing a world where elections and revolutions were won by right-wing nationalists across the board. Netanyahu is likely to lose elections if everything calms down. Iran’s leadership has shown that their leaders fear economic sanctions that could lead to revolution; the Obama/Biden deal is why they didn’t develop nuclear weapons already, and relieving sanctions at least slowed the process down. Iran’s leadership has less reason to fear Israeli missiles (except the targeted strikes aimed at those leaders) because that is likely to bring a wave of nationalism and make them more popular. All the leaders are quite aware that wars tend to make presidents and prime ministers and dictators more popular, not less. All of these leaders are willing to sacrifice some of their own citizens for nationalist gains, and all see the world as a zero-sum game.
 
值得注意的是，以色列、伊朗（以及美國(guó)，可能還有加沙）的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層都面臨著近乎一半國(guó)民的強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)。我們正在看到一個(gè)全球范圍內(nèi)右翼民族主義者在選舉和革命中獲勝的世界。若一切平靜下來(lái)，內(nèi)塔尼亞胡很可能會(huì)在選舉中失利。伊朗的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出他們害怕可能導(dǎo)致革命的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁；奧巴馬/拜登的協(xié)議是他們未開(kāi)發(fā)核武器的原因之一，解除制裁至少減緩了這一進(jìn)程。伊朗的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層對(duì)以色列導(dǎo)彈的恐懼較?。ǔ酸槍?duì)這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的定點(diǎn)打擊），因?yàn)檫@可能會(huì)引發(fā)一波民族主義浪潮，使他們更加受歡迎。所有領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都清楚，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)往往能讓總統(tǒng)、總理和獨(dú)裁者的支持率上升，而不是下降。所有這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都愿意為民族主義的利益犧牲一些本國(guó)公民，他們都把世界視為零和博弈。
 
James Smith
Israel has airborne troops that can drop into Iran, for harassment. The Israelis do not have the troop count or the ability for a sustain foreign deployment. They would need lots of armor on the ground and supporting elements to hold any ground they would attempt to occupy. Bombing a country into submission without troops to own that ground has never worked for US, except for maybe Serbia
 
以色列有空降部隊(duì)可以進(jìn)入伊朗進(jìn)行騷擾。但以色列沒(méi)有足夠的兵力，也無(wú)法維持長(zhǎng)期的海外部署。他們需要大量的裝甲部隊(duì)和支援力量來(lái)控制任何他們?cè)噲D占領(lǐng)的領(lǐng)土。沒(méi)有部隊(duì)來(lái)控制戰(zhàn)地，單靠轟炸一個(gè)國(guó)家讓其屈服，過(guò)去美國(guó)從未成功過(guò)，除非是塞爾維亞。
 
OUTCOME; I think the Israelis and Iran will end up with an armistice. The Iranians will agree publicly or privately to stop its atomic weapons pursuit. The Israelis will stop all offensive military actions and MAYBE offer some reparations to the families of the senior officers killed in action. The US will lift most sanctions against its energy sector. Saudi Arabia will offer concessions.
 
結(jié)果；我認(rèn)為以色列和伊朗最終會(huì)達(dá)成停戰(zhàn)協(xié)議。伊朗會(huì)公開(kāi)或私下同意停止追求核武器。以色列將停止所有進(jìn)攻性軍事行動(dòng)，并可能向在戰(zhàn)斗中犧牲的高級(jí)軍官家屬提供賠償。美國(guó)將解除大部分針對(duì)伊朗能源部門(mén)的制裁。沙特阿拉伯將提供讓步。
 
BEST CASE; The Supreme Leader will end up with Assad in Russia and political prisoners are released. Prince Pahlavi the son of the late Shah of Iran will return and Iran will become a Constitutional Monarchy like Australia. This best case is a long shot but it's a possibility.
 
最好的結(jié)果；最高領(lǐng)袖將和阿薩德一起前往俄羅斯，政治犯被釋放。已故伊朗國(guó)王的兒子巴列維親王將回國(guó)，伊朗將成為像澳大利亞一樣的憲政君主制。這個(gè)最好的結(jié)果雖然幾乎不可能，但也是一種可能性。
 
Jameshyde022
By every metric, they already have lost. Their civil and military leadership has been destroyed. They have no means by which they can attack Israel or defend themselves. They would be sitting in utter darkness, without electricity or running water if not for the benevolence of the US and Israel. All of Iran’s leaders that are still breathing, do so because the US and Israel allow it. They have no allies to come to rescue them. The current regime is all but done. FAFO at it's absolute greatest. 1000 years from now, people will still be talking about how utterly ineffective Iran was in defending itself. Not more than a dozen countries would have fared any better.
 
從各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)來(lái)看，他們已經(jīng)失敗了。他們的民事和軍事領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層已被摧毀。他們沒(méi)有任何方式能夠攻擊以色列或自衛(wèi)。如果不是美國(guó)和以色列的寬容，他們現(xiàn)在可能已經(jīng)在完全黑暗中度日，沒(méi)有電力和自來(lái)水。所有仍然活著的伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，都因?yàn)槊绹?guó)和以色列的允許才得以存活。他們沒(méi)有盟友來(lái)救援他們。當(dāng)前的政權(quán)幾乎已經(jīng)完蛋。這是絕對(duì)的"自作自受"。1000年后，人們?nèi)匀粫?huì)談?wù)撘晾试谧孕l(wèi)方面的完全無(wú)效。沒(méi)有超過(guò)十幾個(gè)國(guó)家會(huì)做得更好。
 
Polarity Theo
the US and Israel did not launch this war to try to eliminate the nuclear sites. They know they can't. They are too well-protected and dispersed and any damage can be reconstituted in the short-term. They launched it to cause total state collapse in Iran, beginning in phases. The first phase was the eliminate the top military and IRGC leaders, while also going after scientists and mass killing civilians in the process.
 
美國(guó)和以色列發(fā)動(dòng)這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)并不是為了消除核設(shè)施。他們知道自己做不到。核設(shè)施防護(hù)嚴(yán)密且分散，任何損壞都能在短期內(nèi)恢復(fù)。他們發(fā)動(dòng)這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的目的是讓伊朗徹底崩潰，從分階段進(jìn)行。第一階段是消除頂級(jí)軍事和伊朗革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)（IRGC）領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，同時(shí)打擊科學(xué)家并在過(guò)程中大量殺害平民。
 
This would create the false impression that they are still somewhat restrained and focused on military/nuclear targets.
After taking what they expect will be a similarly constrained response from Iran, they will see that as confirmation that Iran will not adhere to its own stated red lines and is still afraid of meeting Israel at the same level of escalation.
 
這將營(yíng)造出一種錯(cuò)誤的印象，表明他們?nèi)匀辉谀撤N程度上保持克制，專(zhuān)注于軍事/核目標(biāo)。
在預(yù)期伊朗會(huì)作出類(lèi)似受限的反應(yīng)之后，他們會(huì)把這看作是確認(rèn)伊朗不會(huì)遵守自己聲明的紅線(xiàn)，仍然害怕在同等的升級(jí)水平上與以色列對(duì)抗。
 
That is their green light to proceed to the next phase, which is to target and kill top political leaders, including Khamenei.
Their hope isn't to replace the current government and state with some re-hash of the monarchist Zionist fascist through his failson, they know there is no base of support for that inside the country.
 
這為他們進(jìn)入下一階段提供了綠燈，那就是針對(duì)并殺害頂級(jí)政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，包括哈梅內(nèi)伊。
他們的希望不是通過(guò)哈梅內(nèi)伊的失敗兒子取而代之，將當(dāng)前政府和國(guó)家替換為一個(gè)重啟的君主主義猶太復(fù)國(guó)主義法西斯政權(quán)，他們知道國(guó)內(nèi)沒(méi)有支持這種做法的基礎(chǔ)。
 
Their hope is to do another Libya and Syria: Unleash proxy forces they fund and arm together with the Gulf "Arab shield" puppet regimes and NATO-Erdogan and turn it into a spiral of death and chaos, a concocted "civil war" where Iranians are paid and armed by the CIA and Mossad to kill Iranians.
 
 他們的希望是再做一次利比亞和敘利亞：釋放他們資助和武裝的代理力量，與海灣“阿拉伯盾”傀儡政權(quán)以及北約-埃爾多安合作，將其轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樗劳雠c混亂的螺旋，一場(chǎng)捏造的“內(nèi)戰(zhàn)”，其中伊朗人由中央情報(bào)局（CIA）和摩薩德（Mossad）支付和武裝，互相殘殺。

The MEK and other such proxy forces have already been trained and prepared and are ready to be activated. They will begin with car bombings and terrorist attacks mass killing civilians. "ISIS" will reappear again and do its typical job for their CIA-Mossad masters.
The US and Israel decided to launch this war since before Trump was elected, and it has the full and total support of the entire US military-intelligence-industrial complex and the media and political class, both Republicans and Democrats and it would have also happened if Kamala Harris won the election
 
MEK和其他類(lèi)似的代理力量已經(jīng)接受了訓(xùn)練并準(zhǔn)備好被激活。他們將從汽車(chē)炸彈和恐怖襲擊開(kāi)始，大規(guī)模殺害平民?！癐SIS”將再次出現(xiàn)，按照他們的CIA-摩薩德主人的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)執(zhí)行任務(wù)。
美國(guó)和以色列在特朗普當(dāng)選之前就決定發(fā)動(dòng)這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，并且得到了整個(gè)美國(guó)軍事-情報(bào)-工業(yè)復(fù)雜體、媒體和政治階層的全力支持，無(wú)論是共和黨還是民主黨，如果Kamala Harris贏得選舉，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)同樣會(huì)發(fā)生。
 
They see Iran and the Axis of Resistance and its alliance with Russia and China as the main obstacle to full and total Zionist US-NATO-Israeli imperial hegemony in the region and by extension the world, and they want to destroy it as it is the only one that unlike Russia and China does not have a nuclear deterrent and they want to get to it before it obtains it.
 
他們將伊朗和抗戰(zhàn)軸心國(guó)家及其與俄羅斯和中國(guó)的聯(lián)盟視為美國(guó)-北約-以色列帝國(guó)霸權(quán)完全統(tǒng)治的主要障礙，而這種霸權(quán)的延伸將波及全世界。他們希望摧毀這個(gè)聯(lián)盟，因?yàn)樗俏ㄒ灰粋€(gè)像俄羅斯和中國(guó)一樣沒(méi)有核威懾力的國(guó)家，他們希望在伊朗獲得核武器之前摧毀它。
 
This is an existential war of survival not just for the Iranian state, but for Iran as a nation.
If this project succeeds, the country will be balkanized, ethnic divisions will be stirred by foreign actors, the CIA and Mossad and the Gulf puppets will fund and arm dozens of proxy death and rape-squads roaming their fiefdoms, tens of millions of lives will be destroyed.
Everything must be done to prevent this. Iran has the weapons to do so. It has the capacity to do so, it is only a question of will. Does it have the will to do what it takes to prevent the mass destruction of their own people and nation. I hope it does. We must all hope it does.
 
這不僅對(duì)伊朗國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)是一場(chǎng)生死存亡的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，對(duì)伊朗作為一個(gè)民族也是一場(chǎng)生死存亡的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
如果這個(gè)計(jì)劃成功，伊朗將被分裂，外國(guó)勢(shì)力將煽動(dòng)民族分裂，中央情報(bào)局、摩薩德和海灣傀儡將資助并武裝數(shù)十支代理死亡和強(qiáng)奸小隊(duì)，橫行其領(lǐng)土，數(shù)千萬(wàn)條生命將被摧毀。
必須盡一切努力阻止這種情況的發(fā)生。伊朗有能力做到這一點(diǎn)。它有能力，也只是意志的問(wèn)題。它是否有意志去做出必要的行動(dòng)，以防止自己民族和國(guó)家的毀滅。我希望它能做到。我們都應(yīng)該希望它能做到。
 
Brian Collins
I don't think it’s realistic for either country to “win.” Iran and Israel are conducting air campaigns against each other. You can't defeat a country with just an air campaign.
The US already is intervening. All of the successful interceptions of Iranian ballistic missiles by THAAD interceptors has been done by US troops. Back when Israel threatened to attack Iran in 2024, then-President Biden deployed US troops to Israel in a deal where Israel agreed not to attack Iran, or at least to wait and negotiate a ceasefire with Hamas.
 
我認(rèn)為兩國(guó)“獲勝”都不現(xiàn)實(shí)。伊朗和以色列正進(jìn)行空中攻防。僅憑空中打擊無(wú)法擊敗一個(gè)國(guó)家。
美國(guó)已經(jīng)在介入。所有成功攔截伊朗彈道導(dǎo)彈的行動(dòng)，都是美國(guó)軍隊(duì)通過(guò)“薩德”反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)完成的。2024年以色列威脅攻擊伊朗時(shí)，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登曾派遣美軍部隊(duì)駐扎以色列，達(dá)成協(xié)議，以色列同意不攻擊伊朗，或者至少等待與哈馬斯談判?；?。
 
The US Navy is also intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles with Aegis cruisers. Israel’s Iron Dome has no real ability to intercept ICBMs or mid-range ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome was designed to intercept primitive rockets and artillery shells. It’s possible for the Iron Dome to intercept ballistic missiles, but only if it gets extremely lucky and the ballistic missile is falling in a 100% predictable trajectory.
 
美國(guó)海軍也在使用“宙斯盾”巡洋艦攔截伊朗的彈道導(dǎo)彈。以色列的“鐵穹”系統(tǒng)并沒(méi)有真正能力攔截洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈或中程彈道導(dǎo)彈?！拌F穹”系統(tǒng)是為攔截原始火箭和炮彈而設(shè)計(jì)的。雖然“鐵穹”有可能攔截彈道導(dǎo)彈，但只有在非常幸運(yùn)的情況下，彈道導(dǎo)彈的軌跡是100%可預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)才能成功。
 
The maximum interception altitude for the Iron Dome is a mere 7,000 meters, which is not high enough to actually intercept a ballistic missile except for at the very end of its trajectory. Worse, the interceptors for the iron dome are slower than a ballistic missile, so now it’s essentially the United States acting as Israel’s air defences.
What Israel is doing with its Iron Dome is intercepting Iran’s drones, but those are a much smaller threat than the ballistic missiles.
 
“鐵穹”的最大攔截高度僅為7000米，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠攔截彈道導(dǎo)彈，除非是在彈道導(dǎo)彈軌跡的最后階段。更糟糕的是，“鐵穹”攔截器的速度比彈道導(dǎo)彈還慢，所以現(xiàn)在實(shí)際上是美國(guó)在充當(dāng)以色列的空中防御力量。
以色列使用“鐵穹”系統(tǒng)攔截的是伊朗的無(wú)人機(jī)，但這些威脅比彈道導(dǎo)彈要小得多。