網(wǎng)友討論：日本與其他國家，尤其是中國相比，仍然被視為經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國嗎？

Hong Hwa Lee Teaches Economics and Global Political Economy subjects
It is the fourth economy in the world. It is difficult to say that is irrelevant. On the hand, though, it was the second biggest not that far in the past, it has now been overtaken by Germany which has a much smaller population. It won’t be long before India overtakes it. In short, Japan’s relevance in the global economy is fast fading, and it is not likely to come back. That would be the case even if the Japanese economy is managed well. 
The Chinese economy is about 4 times greater than that of Japan, and the gap is widening. Unless a major disaster strikes China, this trend is going to continue well into the future.

【回答】
這是世界第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，說它無關(guān)緊要很難讓人信服。然而，雖然不久前它還是第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但現(xiàn)在已被人口較少的德國超越。印度也很快就會趕超日本?？傊?，日本在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要性正在迅速減弱，而且不太可能恢復(fù)。即使日本經(jīng)濟(jì)管理得當(dāng)，也會是這種情況。中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模大約是日本的四倍，差距還在擴(kuò)大。除非中國發(fā)生重大災(zāi)難，否則這種趨勢將持續(xù)下去。
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Michael X
It lacks the soil to develop new industries by itself. Non of the new industries happened in Japan after 2000s. Internet industries, smart phones, new energy, EV, passenger jet, AI...etc.However, it is still a significant part of the global supply chain. You can see the trade volumes between China and Japan. I don’t think China is replacing it, it is more like integrating it.

【回復(fù)】日本自身缺乏發(fā)展新產(chǎn)業(yè)的土壤。2000年代后，日本沒有出現(xiàn)新的產(chǎn)業(yè)，如互聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)業(yè)、智能手機(jī)、新能源、電動汽車、客機(jī)、人工智能等。然而，它仍然是全球供應(yīng)鏈的重要組成部分?？梢钥吹街腥罩g的貿(mào)易量。我認(rèn)為中國并不是在取代日本，而更像是在與其整合。

Hong Hwa Lee
Exactly… This was not a case of virtual cycle where a success led to a further success but a case where a success was abruptly stopped. Given how giddy Japanese were at the time and how a coterie of high profile academics swallowed the message whole, it might have looked unexpected, but with a 20–20 hindsight, I think it was all preordained. 
I think Japan was structurally too flawed. Its size was too small [that is, the global economy was too big to be a middle-sized country to be a dominant economic power], and its security was dependent on the US--its chief nemesis. 
So, although Japan might think that it was unfairly treated by its ally the US, my perspective is that Japan was not blindsided but should have expected the treatment. Instead, it has continued to engage in a series of policy mistakes sine the bubble burst and still seems to believe that it was once on the verge on global dominance, and that it still is a relevant global power. I suggested that it might still be, but it is fading very fast. If I were in a position to advise Japan’s policy makers, they should concentrate on maintaining its quality of life instead of struggling to regain its former glory, which is a lost cause.

【答主回復(fù)】沒錯，這并不是一個成功帶來更多成功的良性循環(huán)，而是一個成功突然被終止的案例。考慮到當(dāng)時日本人的興奮程度，以及一群知名學(xué)者完全接受了這種信息，這可能顯得出乎意料。但從后見之明來看，我認(rèn)為這一切都是注定的。
我覺得日本在結(jié)構(gòu)上有太多缺陷。它的規(guī)模太?。慈蚪?jīng)濟(jì)太大，而日本作為一個中等國家無法成為主導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)力量），且其安全依賴于其主要對手美國。
因此，盡管日本可能認(rèn)為自己被盟友美國不公平對待，但在我看來，日本并非措手不及，而是應(yīng)該預(yù)料到這種情況的。然而，自泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)破滅以來，日本繼續(xù)犯下了一系列政策錯誤，并且似乎仍然相信自己曾經(jīng)幾乎達(dá)到全球主導(dǎo)地位，并且仍然是一個重要的全球力量。我認(rèn)為它可能仍然是，但正在迅速衰退。如果我能建議日本的政策制定者，他們應(yīng)該專注于保持生活質(zhì)量，而不是努力恢復(fù)昔日的輝煌，因為那已經(jīng)是不可能的事情。

Michael X
Japan is just an odd ball. During US/Japan trade war, the Japanese diplomats went to China asked China to side with Japan against the US. The Chinese opened their eyes and mouth. The US diplomats also went to China and convinced China, there is less fundamental conflicts between the US and China, therefore China should support the US, and that was what happened. However, economically China didn't alienate Japan either. It is absorbing it, knowing alienating Japan will push them to the other side competely. Their glory was an accident, benefited from the Korean war, and the cold war, utilized their technical advantage while the world was in chaos.

【回復(fù)】日本真是個異類。在美日貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)期間，日本外交官前往中國，請求中國站在日本一邊對抗美國。中國人對此感到非常驚訝。與此同時，美國外交官也去了中國，并說服中國認(rèn)為中美之間的根本沖突較少，因此中國應(yīng)該支持美國，結(jié)果也確實如此。然而，從經(jīng)濟(jì)上看，中國并沒有與日本疏遠(yuǎn)，而是吸收它，因為知道如果與日本疏遠(yuǎn)會將其完全推向另一邊。日本的輝煌是一種偶然，得益于朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭和冷戰(zhàn)，在世界混亂的背景下利用了其技術(shù)優(yōu)勢。

Andrew
I think it’s simpler than that, the yen was massively overvalued right after the Plaza Accord, that put in an unrealistic high watermark. Resource and population limits meant it was never a real contender for largest economy.

【回復(fù)】我認(rèn)為原因更簡單一些，廣場協(xié)議后，日元被嚴(yán)重高估，達(dá)到了一個不切實際的高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。資源和人口限制意味著日本從來就不是最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的真正競爭者。
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Nicky Untun CGI Tokyo Chapter Head at Confederation of Global Innovators (2020–present)
Japan is considered an economic power. 
Japan is still the world’s third largest economy with nominal GDP standing at $5,378 trillion USD. Its currency, the Japanese yen, is the third most utilised currency in international transactions and is part of the global currency basket of reserve currencies, which includes the US dollar, the Euro, the UK pound Sterling and the Swedish krona. As such the yen has special drawing rights. 
Japan exports more than it imports, exporting motor vehicles, iron and steel products, semiconductors and auto parts. Its exports amounted to 18.5% of its 2018 GDP. Japan is also ranked highly for competitiveness, economic freedom, ease of doing business and scientific innovations. 
Other sectors that also generate huge amounts of revenue are industrial engineering, services, tourism, entertainment, science and technology, and infrastructure.

【回答】
日本被視為經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國。日本仍是世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，名義GDP達(dá)到5.378萬億美元。其貨幣日元是國際交易中使用頻率第三高的貨幣，并且是全球儲備貨幣籃子的一部分，其中還包括美元、歐元、英鎊和瑞典克朗。因此，日元擁有特別提款權(quán)。日本的出口大于進(jìn)口，主要出口汽車、鋼鐵產(chǎn)品、半導(dǎo)體和汽車零部件。2018年，出口額占其GDP的18.5%。日本在競爭力、經(jīng)濟(jì)自由度、營商便利度和科學(xué)創(chuàng)新方面排名也很高。其他產(chǎn)生大量收入的行業(yè)包括工業(yè)工程、服務(wù)業(yè)、旅游、娛樂、科技和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
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Comrade Commissar
For now, yes but not for long.

【回復(fù)】目前是這樣，但不會持續(xù)太久。
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JI SHE M.S in Wirtschaftmathematik, RWTH Aachen University (Graduated 2006)
No. 
Japan is only considered a partially leading country in East Asia. 
Its per capita GDP is only $32,000, lower than South Korea (37,000), Hong Kong S.A.R (70,000), Macau S.A.R (80,000) and Taiwan Prov. (33,000) in East Asia. 
Of course, it is higher than China's $13,000, but China's GDP is nearly five times that of Japan, and the number of world-leading industries of China is far more than Japan. 
Japan still leads the world in automobile manufacturing industry , precision instruments and other fields, industrial mother machine, but has fallen behind China in the export volume of traditional automobiles, while its new energy vehicles have been completely crushed by China.，in the field of semiconductors, it has been surpassed by South Korea and Taiwan province, and is not as good as Hong Kong in international finance. 
China is in a relatively leading position in all the industrial fields mentioned above (the most advanced technology in a single industrial field may lag behind Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan province, but its output accounts for 20%-70% of the world's total). In addition, China is also leading in new energy equipment (solar energy, wind energy), high-speed railways (Japan is also relatively strong), shipbuilding (South Korea is also relatively strong), engineering machinery (South Korea is also relatively strong), ultra-high voltage power transmission, quantum communications, drones, and many other fields that need no mention. 
In areas such as intercontinental missiles, aerospace technology, internet technology and artificial intelligence technology, in which China is leading, Japan has no say at all. 
The reason for this situation is that Japan's innovation system is rigid. The corporate system that once led the world in the era of mass production has now become a stumbling block to innovation. In addition, Japan has lost its competitiveness in the Internet era、the new energy era and the AI era due to strategic mistakes. 
In addition, Japanese culture was once popular at the end of the last century, but was replaced by Korean Pop culture at the beginning of this century. Currently, Chinese, Japanese and Korean cultures compete with each other in different fields. 
Japan's military strength（navy and air force） has maintained a leading position in the last century, but it is currently probably on par with South Korea and far behind China.

【回答】
不，日本在東亞僅被視為部分領(lǐng)先的國家。
人均GDP僅為32,000美元，低于東亞的韓國（37,000美元）、香港（特區(qū)）特別行政區(qū)（70,000美元）、澳門特別行政區(qū)（80,000美元）和臺灣（地區(qū)）省（33,000美元）。
當(dāng)然，這比中國的13,000美元要高，但中國的GDP幾乎是日本的五倍，中國在世界領(lǐng)先的產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)量上也遠(yuǎn)超日本。日本仍在汽車制造業(yè)、精密儀器等領(lǐng)域以及產(chǎn)業(yè)母機(jī)上保持世界領(lǐng)先，但在傳統(tǒng)汽車出口量上已落后于中國，其新能源汽車完全被中國壓制；在半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域被韓國和臺灣（地區(qū)）省超越，在國際金融方面不如香港（特區(qū)）。
中國在上述所有工業(yè)領(lǐng)域中都處于相對領(lǐng)先地位（某些單一工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的最先進(jìn)技術(shù)可能落后于日本、韓國和臺灣（地區(qū)）省，但其產(chǎn)量占世界總量的20%-70%）。此外，中國在新能源設(shè)備（太陽能、風(fēng)能）、高鐵（日本也相對強(qiáng)）、造船（韓國也相對強(qiáng)）、工程機(jī)械（韓國也相對強(qiáng)）、特高壓輸電、量子通信、無人機(jī)等許多領(lǐng)域也處于領(lǐng)先地位。在洲際導(dǎo)彈、航空航天技術(shù)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)和人工智能技術(shù)等領(lǐng)域，中國處于領(lǐng)先地位，而日本則毫無話語權(quán)。這種情況的原因是日本的創(chuàng)新體系僵化，曾在大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)時代引領(lǐng)世界的企業(yè)制度如今成了創(chuàng)新的絆腳石。
此外，由于戰(zhàn)略失誤，日本在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代、新能源時代和人工智能時代中失去了競爭力。日本文化曾在上世紀(jì)末風(fēng)靡一時，但在本世紀(jì)初被韓國流行文化取代。目前，中日韓文化在不同領(lǐng)域相互競爭。日本的軍事力量（海軍和空軍）在上個世紀(jì)保持領(lǐng)先，但目前可能與韓國不相上下，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于中國。

Gordon Bennett Lives in Asia (2008–present)
Of course it is still a world leading economy. It is a G 7 nation. In fact it was an original founding member in 1975 of what was then the G6 with Canada joining, and thus creating, the G7 a few years later.

【回答】
當(dāng)然，它仍然是世界領(lǐng)先的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一。它是七國集團(tuán)成員國。事實上，它在1975年是最初的創(chuàng)始成員，當(dāng)時是六國集團(tuán)，后因加拿大加入而成為七國集團(tuán)。

Phacops Former Process Validation Quality Engineer
I’ve worked in Japan and their manufacturing efficiency and competence is beyond what America can provide. Also, its modern infrastructure is far more advanced than the 19th century infrastructure of the US. When comparing how Japan’s economy benefits its citizens here is a good comparison. 
The number of hours of work in a week at minimum wage that will allow somebody to escape poverty. In Japan workers will escape poverty, unlike in the US which ranks dead last. America is an undeniably cruel nation.

【回答】
我曾在日本工作過，他們的制造效率和能力遠(yuǎn)超美國。此外，日本的現(xiàn)代基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也比美國的19世紀(jì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施先進(jìn)得多。比較兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)對公民的益處時，可以用一個很好的指標(biāo)：在最低工資下，每周需要工作多少小時才能擺脫貧困。在日本，勞動者能擺脫貧困，而美國則排名墊底。美國無疑是個殘酷的國家。

Baby Smith Lives in Canada
No, Japan is no longer considered an economic power. In the 1980s an early 1990s, its electronic, automobile, shipbuilding and steel industries dominated and Japan became the second largest economy in the world. However, its electronic industry has now essentially disappeared, major car companies like Nissan is on the verge of bankruptcies and its shipbuilding and steel industries have declined into irrelevance. It did NOT find other industries to replace those that had declined. The only industry that still thriving in Japan today is its tourism and sex industry.
What happened? 
A major reason is Japanese culture - they wok towards attaining dominance and perfection and once they attained it, they STOP. AND that is what the Japanese did. They stop innovating and seeking ways to do better - in electronic stores in Japan, you can still buy brand new cassette recorders, video machines and Walkman. Consequently, countries like China came out with new and better ways to make things and create better products. 
The other major reason is the rise of China - like Europe and the United States, Japan could not compete with the singular focus, drive, efficiency and scale of China. Their companes could not compete, and choke off the funds for R&D, fell off into irrelevance.

【回答】
不，日本不再被視為經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國。
在1980年代和1990年代初，日本的電子、汽車、造船和鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)曾經(jīng)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，日本因此成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。然而，如今其電子產(chǎn)業(yè)基本消失，像日產(chǎn)這樣的大型汽車公司瀕臨破產(chǎn)，造船和鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)也已衰退至無關(guān)緊要的地位。日本未能找到其他產(chǎn)業(yè)來替代這些已衰退的行業(yè)。如今在日本唯一仍然興旺的行業(yè)是旅游業(yè)和性產(chǎn)業(yè)。
這是怎么回事呢？一個主要原因是日本文化，他們努力追求主導(dǎo)地位和完美，但一旦達(dá)成目標(biāo)就停止不前。這正是日本人所做的，他們停止了創(chuàng)新和追求更好的方法。在日本的電子商店里，你仍然可以買到全新的卡帶錄音機(jī)、錄像機(jī)和隨身聽。結(jié)果，中國等國家找到了新的、更好的制造方法并創(chuàng)造了更好的產(chǎn)品。
另一個主要原因是中國的崛起，與歐洲和美國一樣，日本無法與中國的專注、動力、效率和規(guī)模競爭。他們的公司無法競爭，資金枯竭導(dǎo)致研發(fā)停滯，最終被邊緣化。
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Rednut
Japan’s problem was not that they stopped being competitive voluntarily. I’d put a few reasons:
* The Plaza Accord signed 1985 that forced the Yen to appreciate, thus destroying Japanese exports
* Early wave feminism in 1980s Japan resulting in less women willing to marry and have children, resulting in a sustained birth rate crash that led to an ageing population
* Rigid corporate structure and conservative culture that generally dislikes trying out new technologies (floppy disks are still in use today in some places)
* Strategic mistakes of many companies holding on too stubbornly to their patents (and expecting to collect tax on them), but not having the production to sustain. The result being the producers switched to other designs, especially open-sourced ones. Case in point: blu-ray discs, hydrogen-powered cars.

【回復(fù)】日本的問題不在于他們自愿停止競爭力。我認(rèn)為有幾個原因：
* 1985年簽署的“廣場協(xié)議”迫使日元升值，從而削弱了日本的出口
* 1980年代日本早期的女權(quán)運(yùn)動導(dǎo)致女性不太愿意結(jié)婚生子，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致出生率持續(xù)下降，導(dǎo)致人口老齡化
* 僵化的企業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和保守的文化普遍不喜歡嘗試新技術(shù)（某些地方至今仍在使用軟盤）
* 許多公司在專利上過于固執(zhí)，期望從中收取費(fèi)用，但生產(chǎn)能力不足以維持，結(jié)果導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)商轉(zhuǎn)而采用其他設(shè)計，尤其是開源設(shè)計。例如：藍(lán)光光盤、氫動力汽車。

Baby Smith
The 1980s and early 1990s was the only time in history that they shined - I think that is it for them.

【答主回復(fù)】他們在1980年代和1990年代初是唯一輝煌的時期，我覺得那就是他們的巔峰了。

Stella Tan is Actually a Man
Typical Chinese answer. Not even worth typing out.

【回復(fù)】典型的中國式回答。根本不值得寫出來。

Ridwan Jacobs
Why don’t you then post your own “better” answer?

【回復(fù)】那你為什么不發(fā)表你自己“更好”的回答呢？
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