國外熱議：越南和中國在1980年代都同樣貧窮。截至2020年，中國的進步速度為什么比越南快得多？為什么越南和中國之間的差距越來越大？

Felix Su
Two things. There’s more but we’ll just stick to these two for now. Size and Capitalism. China went capitalist in 1976 after Mao died and Deng took over.

有兩點原因。雖然還有更多因素，但我們先談這兩個：規(guī)模和資本主義。中國在1976年毛澤東去世、鄧小平上臺后開始走上資本主義道路。

China has a huge market due to it’s population. I am going to go with the theories from the West. Something else actually happened but it is simpler and easier so we’ll just go with Western idea of what happened.

中國由于人口眾多而擁有龐大的市場。我將引用西方的理論。實際上發(fā)生的事情更復(fù)雜，但為了簡單起見，我們就按照西方的解釋來講述。

Western firms wanted into the Chinese market. China had a condition. If you want in, then you have to transfer technology to China. They didn’t care if it was 3 generations old technology. Whatever you bring into China to sell, you must transfer the tech.

西方公司想進入中國市場，而中國則提出了一個條件：想進入市場，就必須向中國轉(zhuǎn)讓技術(shù)。中國并不在意這些技術(shù)是否已經(jīng)落后了三代——只要你帶來產(chǎn)品進入中國銷售，就必須交出技術(shù)。

So Western firms thought about it and decided to give China their old technology and sell in China to make huge profits. It’s been almost 50 years.

于是西方企業(yè)權(quán)衡之后，決定用老舊技術(shù)換取進入中國市場的機會，從而在中國賺取巨額利潤。這樣的情況已經(jīng)持續(xù)了將近50年。

Oh and a bonus event. China entered the WTO after negotiating with the US for 10 years in 2000. That lowered tariffs to and from China so it made Western firms even more profitable. So they did more business with China transferring more technology.

另外還有一個關(guān)鍵事件：中國在與美國談判10年后于2000年加入了世貿(mào)組織。這降低了中國出口的關(guān)稅，使西方公司利潤更高，因此他們更加積極地與中國合作，轉(zhuǎn)移了更多的技術(shù)。

Huijian Wu
In 1980, China was poor but had been building for 30 years, from 1950-1980, while Vietnam was at war all this time.

1980年時，中國雖然貧窮，但從1950年到1980年，已經(jīng)持續(xù)建設(shè)了30年；而越南則一直處于戰(zhàn)爭中。

During the period 1980-1990, China opened up to the outside world, trading with the West and attracting Western investment. And at this time, Vietnam was occupying Cambodia, fighting a border war with China and being sanctioned by the West.

在1980至1990年間，中國開始對外開放，與西方國家貿(mào)易，并吸引西方投資。而與此同時，越南占領(lǐng)柬埔寨，與中國發(fā)生邊境戰(zhàn)爭，并受到西方制裁。

In the period 1990-2000, China entered a phase of rapid development and Vietnam had just ended the war and was struggling to seek Western recognition.

從1990年到2000年，中國進入快速發(fā)展階段，而越南剛剛結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭，還在努力爭取西方的承認(rèn)。

These are the facts, and the facts are not complicated

以上就是事實，而且這些事實并不復(fù)雜。

Wei Zhang
In general, China had been peaceful since 1949 when No-one invaded it like Japan did to China before. But Vietnam was invaded totally by France, America and had war with China and the Chinese ally -Khmer Rouge from 1945–1991.

總體來說，自1949年以來中國一直相對和平，沒有再像之前那樣遭到日本那樣的入侵。而越南則從1945年到1991年先后被法國、美國全面入侵，還與中國及中國的盟友——紅色高棉發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭。

Of course, China also had some small wars with America in Korea, Soviet unx, India and Vietnam but all of these war were just border conflicts with China.

當(dāng)然，中國也與美國、蘇聯(lián)、印度和越南發(fā)生過一些小規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭，但這些都只是邊境沖突。

Also, before 1980s, China had its own industry with many of products from nuclear weapons, tanks, aircraft…..

此外，早在1980年代之前，中國就已經(jīng)擁有自己的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，能夠生產(chǎn)包括核武器、坦克和飛機在內(nèi)的許多產(chǎn)品。

In basic, Vietnam and China had no same position before 1980s even though both countries were poor too but Vietnam was poorer much than China.

基本上，雖然兩國在1980年代之前都很貧窮，但越南遠比中國更加貧困，因此兩國當(dāng)時并不處于同一發(fā)展水平。

After China betrayed the Soviet unx and leaked to the American shoes during 1980s, it has started to grow fast but Vietnam only did in 1995 after the Vietnamese-American normalization.

中國在1980年代“背叛”蘇聯(lián)，轉(zhuǎn)而靠近美國后，開始迅速發(fā)展；而越南直到1995年越美關(guān)系正?；蟛砰_始發(fā)展。

William Yeo
You thought China was poor in the Mao era.

你以為中國在毛時代很窮。

That’s because Mao prepared thousands of tons of AKs, RPGs, MLRSs, grenades, shells, tanks, jets and food and supplies for a coming WW3.

那是因為毛準(zhǔn)備了成千上萬噸的AK步槍、火箭筒、多管火箭炮、手榴彈、炮彈、坦克、戰(zhàn)機、食品和補給，以備未來第三次世界大戰(zhàn)。

…in addition to the many superguns, ballistic and anti-ballistic missiles, nukes, longrange radars etc., that he built to protect his cities from a possible doomsday.

除此之外，他還制造了大量超級火炮、彈道導(dǎo)彈、反導(dǎo)導(dǎo)彈、核武器、遠程雷達等，用來防御可能發(fā)生的世界末日。

And unlucky for Vietnamese. They happened to piss off china when Deng xiaoping, Mao’s successor, realized that he no longer needed these ammo for a never-to-come world war…

而越南很不幸，在鄧小平（毛的繼任者）意識到這些彈藥已經(jīng)不再需要用于永遠不會到來的世界大戰(zhàn)之際，激怒了中國……

So half of the ammos were showered onto Vietnam, and the rest half sold to mid-east.

于是，一半彈藥傾瀉在越南頭上，另一半賣給了中東。

So they got rich.

因此中國因此致富。

Arch Stanton
Because China in the 1970s had an industrial base but Vietnam did not.

因為1970年代的中國已經(jīng)擁有工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，而越南卻沒有。

White westerners simply do not know that China had a very large heavy industry in existence since the 1950s due to Soviet help and aid. This is due to China trying to emulate the Soviet unx’s success in industrialization.

白人西方人普遍不知道，從1950年代開始，中國在蘇聯(lián)的援助下建立起了龐大的重工業(yè)。這是因為中國試圖效仿蘇聯(lián)在工業(yè)化方面的成功。

Westerner believe that the USSR was always decrepit and weak and nothing could be further from the truth. Before economic decline set in in the Soviet unx in the latter 1970s/80s, the USSR was an industrial giant.

西方人普遍認(rèn)為蘇聯(lián)一直是個衰敗又虛弱的國家，但事實遠非如此。在1970年代末至1980年代經(jīng)濟衰退之前，蘇聯(lián)曾是一個工業(yè)巨頭。

What Mao and the Chinese communist Party wanted was to do what the USSR had done in just under 2 decades and that was to turn the USSR from a pre-industrial country into an industrialized country.

毛澤東和中國***所希望的，復(fù)制蘇聯(lián)用不到20年時間從一個前工業(yè)化國家轉(zhuǎn)型為工業(yè)國家的成功經(jīng)驗，完成蘇聯(lián)的工業(yè)化道路。

In fact that fast industrialization was very probably what saved the Soviet unx during the nazi invasion.

事實上，這種快速工業(yè)化很可能就是蘇聯(lián)在納粹入侵時得以生存的關(guān)鍵。

Czarist Russia was a pre-industrial nation with SOME industry but no where on the level of the West. This low industrial base was one of the major factors that led to the Russian Revolution.

沙皇俄國是一個前工業(yè)國家，雖有少量工業(yè)，但遠遠落后于西方。這種低水平的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)是導(dǎo)致俄國革命的主要原因之一。

Czarist Russia had relied on the French for arms but World War One had made it impossible for France to get arms to Russia and Russia’s industrial base simply could not keep the Czarist armies supplied with arms and ammunition nor even food nor clothing.

沙俄依賴法國提供武器，但第一次世界大戰(zhàn)使得法國無法再為俄國供給武器，而俄國自身的工業(yè)也不足以為軍隊提供足夠的武器彈藥，甚至連食物和衣物都供應(yīng)不上。

This led directly to the Czarist troops mutinying and thus to the Russian Revolution.

這直接導(dǎo)致沙俄軍隊嘩變，并最終引發(fā)俄國革命。

This fact was not lost on the Bolsheviks when they took power and they knew the USSR had to build up a large industrial base.

布爾什維克在掌權(quán)后深知這一點，因此他們明白蘇聯(lián)必須建立起強大的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)。

Starting in the latter 1920s, in the “5 Year Plans” the Soviets imported entire factories and processing plants from Western Capitalists.

從1920年代末起，蘇聯(lián)通過“五年計劃”，從西方資本主義國家整套引進工廠和加工設(shè)施。

From these imported factories and plants, the Soviets learned how to create and build their own factories and plants.

通過這些引進的工廠，蘇聯(lián)逐漸學(xué)會了如何自主設(shè)計和建設(shè)自己的工廠和工業(yè)設(shè)施。

In a short decade the USSR had created an industrial base where the Soviet unx could start producing lots of steel for infrastructure building across the USSR as well as making tractors to transform farming across the USSR.

在短短十年間，蘇聯(lián)建立起了工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，可以生產(chǎn)大量鋼鐵用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，同時制造拖拉機以改造農(nóng)業(yè)。

AND, of course these same factories could produce weapons for war.

而且，這些工廠當(dāng)然也能制造戰(zhàn)爭所需的武器。

Hitler believed the nazis were invading 1916 pre-industrial Czarist Russia when in fact in 1941 it was invading a massive munitions factory that the USSR had become.

希特勒以為納粹在入侵的是1916年的落后沙俄，實際上他們在1941年面對的是已然變成龐大軍工廠的蘇聯(lián)。

From the massive war production of World War Two, the Soviet unx would emerge as a huge industrial power that would create their own passenger jet planes and send Soviet Cosmonauts into space.

通過二戰(zhàn)期間龐大的軍工生產(chǎn)，蘇聯(lián)成為了一個強大的工業(yè)國家，能夠自主制造客機，甚至將宇航員送入太空。

Like mentioned, Mao and the CCP knew what the Soviets had achieved during the 1920s and 1930s and wanted to emulate that and thus the Mao and the CCP acquired large numbers of factories and plants from the Soviets during the 1950s to do what the Soviets had done 20 years earlier.

正如前文所述，毛澤東和中G了解蘇聯(lián)在1920至1930年代所取得的成就，因此在1950年代從蘇聯(lián)引進了大量工廠和設(shè)備，試圖效仿蘇聯(lián)20年前的做法。

But there would be no repeat in China of what the Soviets had achieved because of Mao.

但由于毛的原因，中國并未能重現(xiàn)蘇聯(lián)的成功。

Stalin and the Soviets made a clear and concentrated and concerted effort to achieve a level of industrialization during the late 1920s and 1930s.

斯大林及其政府在1920年代末至1930年代專注且集中地推進工業(yè)化進程。

China acquired all the equipment to make the effort but Mao kept disrupting any industrialization efforts through endless economic and political schemes that Mao kept coming up with through the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s.

中國雖然也獲得了完成工業(yè)化所需的設(shè)備，但毛在1950至1970年代不斷推出各種政治與經(jīng)濟運動，反而屢次中斷了工業(yè)化進程。

By the time of Mao’s death in 1976, China had achieved little industrialization. BUT, all those industrial plants and factories were there.

到毛1976年去世時，中國的工業(yè)化程度仍很低。但所有那些工廠和工業(yè)設(shè)施已經(jīng)建好了。

It would take about a decade but the economic and political reforms of Deng would finally make use of all of that industrial infrastructure and thus China “finally” really “took off” economically by the early 1990s.

經(jīng)過大約十年的調(diào)整，鄧小平的經(jīng)濟與政治改革終于盤活了這些工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，從而讓中國在1990年代初真正實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟“起飛”。

Meanwhile Vietnam is still just NOW acquiring the equipment and processes that will lead it to industrialize the nation AND to begin building much needed infrastructure.

與此同時，越南直到最近才開始獲取實現(xiàn)工業(yè)化所需的設(shè)備和流程，也才開始大規(guī)模建設(shè)關(guān)鍵的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

Thanh Tung
This is a good question. To answer this question, I would like to briefly analyze the economic development context of China and Vietnam from 1970.

這是一個很好的問題。為了回答這個問題，我想簡要分析一下自1970年以來中越兩國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展背景。

About China's economy

關(guān)于中國的經(jīng)濟：

China is a big country, ending civil war in 1949. China was a backward country before 1970.

中國是一個大國，在1949年結(jié)束了內(nèi)戰(zhàn)。在1970年之前，中國仍是一個落后的國家。

In 1972, China joined hands with the US and vigorously reformed the economy under Deng xiaoping.

1972年，中國與美國握手言和，并在鄧小平的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下大力進行經(jīng)濟改革。

After the reform and opening up, China's economy quickly developed to become the second largest economy in the world due to its advantages in population, cheap labor and investment of capitalist countries in China.

改革開放后，中國憑借龐大的人口、廉價勞動力以及來自資本主義國家的投資迅速發(fā)展，成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體。

Currently, China's economy is about to break through the middle-income trap and will become the world's leading economy in about 10 years. China is competing with the US in a number of fields such as military, electronics, trade ...

目前，中國經(jīng)濟正準(zhǔn)備突破“中等收入陷阱”，并有望在未來10年內(nèi)成為全球第一大經(jīng)濟體。中國正在多個領(lǐng)域與美國競爭，如軍事、電子、貿(mào)易等。

Personally, I think that China has made great achievements since 1980, which can be said to be miracles in Asia, which India has not been able to do.

就我個人而言，我認(rèn)為自1980年以來中國取得了巨大成就，可以說是亞洲的奇跡，這是印度至今未能做到的。

About Vietnam's economy

關(guān)于越南的經(jīng)濟：

Unlike China, Vietnam's economic scale is smaller and Vietnam experienced many brutal wars and was under a long-term embargo until the end of 1994.

與中國不同，越南的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模較小，且長期遭受殘酷戰(zhàn)爭的摧殘，并一直受到國際社會制裁，直到1994年底才解除。

After independence in 1945, the French returned and re-occupied Vietnam.

越南在1945年宣布獨立后，法國卷土重來，再次占領(lǐng)了越南。

The Viet Minh fought against the French for 9 years and defeated them at Dien Bien Phu forcing the French to withdraw from Indochina.

越南的越盟軍與法國作戰(zhàn)9年，在奠邊府取得決定性勝利，迫使法國撤出印度支那。

The great powers did not let Vietnam unify. Vietnam is divided into two regions at the 17th parallel like South and North Korea.

大國并不允許越南統(tǒng)一。越南被分為南北兩部分，界線設(shè)在北緯17度，就像朝鮮半島那樣。

However, unlike North Korea, North Vietnam did not accept the division of the country.

但與朝鮮不同的是，北越并未接受國家分裂的現(xiàn)狀。

The North continued the war to unify the country in 1975.

北越繼續(xù)進行戰(zhàn)爭，最終在1975年實現(xiàn)國家統(tǒng)一。

To unify the country, Vietnam defeated the Americans and lost 3 million in the 20 year war.

為了國家統(tǒng)一，越南擊敗了美國，付出了三百萬人的代價，這場戰(zhàn)爭持續(xù)了20年。

After 1975, the US government remained hostile to Vietnam.

1975年后，美國政府依然對越南抱有敵意。

In 1972, the US shook hands with China to deal with the Soviet unx.

早在1972年，美國已與中國握手言和，共同對抗蘇聯(lián)。

Vietnam - China relations deteriorated, China provided financial aid to the Khmer Rouge to fight Vietnam in the South in 1977.

中越關(guān)系開始惡化。1977年，中國向紅色高棉提供援助，讓其在越南南方發(fā)動襲擊。

In 1978, Vietnam fought the Khmer Rouge after the Khmer Rouge had attacked the entire border line, killing more than 3000 Vietnamese in Ba Chuc, in the territory of Vietnam.

1978年，紅色高棉全面襲擊越南邊境，越南在邊境的巴朱村有3000多人被屠殺，于是越南對紅色高棉發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭。

China launched an attack on Vietnam on February 17, 1979 to support the Khmer Rouge.

1979年2月17日，中國為了支援紅色高棉，對越南發(fā)動了戰(zhàn)爭。

At this time, Vietnam - China relations are tense, but Vietnam still does not think that China will attack Vietnam.

當(dāng)時中越關(guān)系非常緊張，但越南并未預(yù)料到中國會真的出兵。

The result was an extremely bloody war that lasted for 1 month and lasted for more than 10 years until 1989.

結(jié)果是一場極其慘烈的戰(zhàn)爭，雖然正面交火只持續(xù)了一個月，但邊境沖突持續(xù)了十余年，直到1989年才完全結(jié)束。

When China withdrew, China destroyed all houses and infrastructure in 6 northern border provinces and continued to maintain the border war until 1989.

中國撤軍時還摧毀了越南北部六個省的所有房屋和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，并一直維持邊境敵對狀態(tài)直到1989年。

Vietnam was embargoed by the US for nearly 20 years until the end of 1994.

越南則遭受美國制裁長達近20年，直到1994年底才解除。

After two wars 1979-1989 with the Khmer Rouge and China and the US embargo, Vietnam's economy was always the poorest economy in the world in the period 1980-1990.

經(jīng)歷了1979-1989年與紅色高棉、中國的戰(zhàn)爭，以及美國的長期封鎖后，越南在1980-1990年間一直是世界上最貧窮的國家之一。

Period of peace and economic development of Vietnam from 1990

1990年后的和平與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展時期：

After Vietnam withdrew troops from Cambodia, Vietnam-China relations were normalized in 1991 after a treaty signed in 1990.

越南從柬埔寨撤軍后，于1990年簽署條約，并在1991年實現(xiàn)與中國關(guān)系正常化。

Vietnam-US relations gradually improved, the US lifted the embargo against Vietnam at the end of 1994.

越美關(guān)系也逐步改善，美國在1994年底正式解除對越南的制裁。

Vietnam really entered the period of peace from 1990. Therefore, it can be said that Vietnam has had time to build economy more than 30 years from 1990 to 2022.

越南真正的和平時期始于1990年，因此可以說，從1990年到2022年，越南已經(jīng)有30多年的時間來發(fā)展經(jīng)濟。

In these 30 years, the Vietnam - US relationship has improved markedly since 1995, the US has become the largest export economy of Vietnam.

在這30年中，自1995年以來，越美關(guān)系顯著改善，美國成為越南最大的出口市場。

In the 30 years, from 1990 to 2020 (end of war but still under embargo), Vietnam's GDP per capita increased from 100 USD to 3497.5 USD.

從1990年到2020年（雖然戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束但初期仍受制裁），越南人均GDP從100美元增長到3497.5美元。

China has been a largest import – export relationship with Vietnam.

中國也成為越南最大的進出口伙伴。

This is a remarkable achievement, it shows that Vietnam's economy is on the right track after many brutal wars.

這是一個值得稱贊的成就，說明越南經(jīng)歷多次殘酷戰(zhàn)爭后，經(jīng)濟終于走上了正確的道路。

Conclusion:

結(jié)論：

China was at peace earlier than Vietnam, embarked on the socialist-oriented capitalist economic path earlier than Vietnam. Therefore, China has remarkable and amazing achievements.

中國比越南更早進入和平時期，也更早走上社會主義市場經(jīng)濟的道路，因此取得了非凡而驚人的成就。

However, looking at Vietnam's growth rate (watch the video), you can also see that Vietnam also has stable developments from 1990.

不過，觀察越南的經(jīng)濟增長率（視頻中有展示），可以看出自1990年以來，越南同樣實現(xiàn)了穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。

Currently, Vietnam is a unified, peaceful country with a high growth rate in the world.

如今，越南是一個統(tǒng)一、和平的國家，經(jīng)濟增長率在全球范圍內(nèi)都處于較高水平。

Many International organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, ADB... also assessed that Vietnam has been on the right track and had remarkable economic achievements over the past 30 years.

許多國際組織，如世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織、亞洲開發(fā)銀行等，也一致認(rèn)為越南過去30年一直在正確的發(fā)展道路上，經(jīng)濟成就顯著。

Personally, I think that Vietnam's economic achievements are not as remarkable as China's, but we are not ashamed of Vietnam's 30 years of economic development since 1990.

我個人認(rèn)為，越南的經(jīng)濟成就雖然不如中國那么輝煌，但我們對越南自1990年以來的30年經(jīng)濟發(fā)展并不感到羞愧。

With independence, Vietnamese people are also working hard and believe in the bright future of the Vietnamese economy.

在國家獨立的基礎(chǔ)上，越南人民也在努力奮斗，并堅信越南經(jīng)濟的光明未來。