QA：關(guān)稅本應(yīng)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹急劇上升，但為什么美國的通貨膨脹卻持續(xù)下降？“你是被鎖在閣樓里嗎？學(xué)會(huì)補(bǔ)襪子，穿有洞的t恤吧！”

Brian Cooke
While inflation has not risen dramatically, it has definitely not “gone down”.
It will be felt here in Canada too. Predictions are it has n ot hit and will suddenly be much more of an an “in your face” reality check for Americans than it will be for other countries as they are still allies and re writing and moving ahead with new trade agreements, without the “unreliable” US.
The supply chain, wholesale and retail stockpiling, consumer stockpiling, warehousing of “yet to be released tariffed stock is still being used or held, hoping for trade deals, or removal of all tariffs.
Harvest season is not fully hit with the reduction in “foreign workers” being removed or running for cover. The harvest processing marketing and distribution of food impacted by the looming labour shortage and tariffs has not had time to really impact yet.
Combine all the realities above with:
The US Administration fudging numbers,
Fools believing Trumps declarations that eggs and gas are cheaper… ( coughing “bullshit” under my breath…!) ,
Watching FOX entertainment and not real news,
Not actually tracking your pay, budget, spending and savings…
Being naive, trusting and hopeful… sure you might be tricked into thinking “inflation is down”.
Knowing the same or less about economics than Trump. “Nothing from nothing” is the sum there BTW.
The time to watch is the fall to Christmas. By then, the supply chain will have reacted along with importers and business big and small. The international shifts away from American trade and products and the fall out from the current lost tourist season with low winter future bookings will come home to roost.
When you enter the new heating season or go to replace your car or get it repaired this fall or later… sticker shock wont just be an expression you’ve heard.
When your investments, pension funds and savings are stunted or losing money and your benefits are cut… And retirement is now going to have to wait three four or five more years.
The point is… pay attention, do some math, and wait a couple of months… I hope you are prepared.
 
 雖然通脹沒有大幅上升，但絕對也沒有“下降”。
加拿大也感受到了通脹的影響。預(yù)計(jì)通脹尚未達(dá)到頂峰，但對美國人來說，這比對其他國家來說，會(huì)突然變成一次“直面現(xiàn)實(shí)”的考驗(yàn)，因?yàn)檫@些國家仍然是盟友，正在重新修訂和推進(jìn)新的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，里面不再包含“不可靠”的美國。
供應(yīng)鏈、批發(fā)和零售囤貨、消費(fèi)者囤貨，以及“尚未放行的關(guān)稅庫存”的倉儲(chǔ)仍在使用或持有，期待著達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)議或取消所有關(guān)稅。
由于“外國工人”減少或被迫撤離或?qū)で蟊幼o(hù)，收獲季節(jié)尚未完全受到影響。受迫在眉睫的勞動(dòng)力短缺和關(guān)稅影響的收獲、加工、營銷和食品分銷尚未真正發(fā)揮作用。

將以上所有現(xiàn)實(shí)與以下情況結(jié)合起來：
1、美國政府捏造數(shù)據(jù)，
2、傻瓜們相信特朗普關(guān)于雞蛋和汽油比過去更便宜的聲明……（我低聲咳嗽著說“胡說八道”……?。?br /> 3、看福克斯娛樂節(jié)目而不是真正的新聞，
4、沒有真正追蹤你的工資、預(yù)算、支出和儲(chǔ)蓄……
5、天真、輕信、充滿希望……你肯定會(huì)被誤導(dǎo)，以為“通貨膨脹率下降了”。
6、對經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的了解與特朗普相同或更少。“無中生有”就是總結(jié)。順便說一句。

秋季到圣誕節(jié)期間是最需要關(guān)注的時(shí)期。到那時(shí)，供應(yīng)鏈、進(jìn)口商以及大大小小的企業(yè)都會(huì)做出反應(yīng)。國際市場對美國貿(mào)易和產(chǎn)品的轉(zhuǎn)移，以及當(dāng)前旅游旺季的衰退和冬季未來預(yù)訂量的低迷，都將帶來負(fù)面影響。

當(dāng)你進(jìn)入新的供暖季節(jié)，或者在今年秋天或之后更換或維修你的汽車時(shí)……價(jià)格沖擊將不僅僅是你聽到過的說法。
當(dāng)你的投資、養(yǎng)老基金和儲(chǔ)蓄陷入困境或虧損，你的福利被削減……而退休現(xiàn)在又要等上三四年或者五年了。
關(guān)鍵是……注意，算一下，再等幾個(gè)月……我希望你已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備了。
 


Fred Curry
Watching Fox TV again, say 10 Hail Mary’s and go and sin no more!
In what bubble are you living in that you have not noticed prices inching up on every item that is imported?
And Trump said “If you want to avoid paying the tariffs then buy american made products.”
O K tell me where I can buy american grown bananas?
 
 又在看?？怂闺娨暸_(tái)了，念十遍萬?，斃麃喼洌缓髣e再犯罪了！??
你是生活在什么樣的泡沫里，竟然沒注意到所有進(jìn)口商品的價(jià)格都在上漲？
特朗普還說：“如果你想避免支付關(guān)稅，那就買美國制造的產(chǎn)品?！?br /> 好吧，告訴我哪里可以買到美國產(chǎn)的香蕉？


DBA
It must really be wonderful to live in a world where, if you don't like something, you simply declare it to not be true and go in with life. And if you want something to be true, you just decide that is what you are going to believe.
No worrying about facts. No problem with logic or critical thinking. No worries about reality. Just blame everything on whatever group it is you want to hate, declare it is their fault and never have to face reality.
What a pleasant little world.
Never mind details like facts, truth, data, and reality. Just make up your own.
And who cares if the entire rest of the world knows you are insane or stupid.
 
生活在這樣一個(gè)世界里一定很美好：如果你不喜歡某件事，你只需宣稱它不是真的，然后繼續(xù)生活下去，就好了。如果你希望某件事是真的，你只需決定相信它就行了。
不用擔(dān)心事實(shí)。邏輯和批判性思維都沒問題。不用擔(dān)心現(xiàn)實(shí)。只需把一切都?xì)w咎于你想恨的群體，宣稱這是他們的錯(cuò)，然后永遠(yuǎn)不必面對現(xiàn)實(shí)。
多么美好的小世界啊。
別在意事實(shí)、真相、數(shù)據(jù)和現(xiàn)實(shí)之類的細(xì)節(jié)。只需創(chuàng)造你自己想要的。
誰在乎全世界都知道你是瘋子還是傻瓜呢。

 
Stephen Ford
Time lag.
The inflation figures look backwards over the last year, most of which was under the Biden administration incidentally.
Tariffs will only affect the inflation figures some time after the tariffs kick in and the goods concerned have arrived on the shelves in the shops. It will take until about November before they really start to bite, but be assured, they will bite, big time. The inflation figures are going to shoot up.
 
時(shí)間滯后了。
通脹數(shù)據(jù)回顧的是過去一年的情況，順便提一句，其中大部分是在拜登政府執(zhí)政期間。
關(guān)稅只有在生效、相關(guān)商品上架一段時(shí)間后才會(huì)對通脹數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)生影響。關(guān)稅要到11月左右才會(huì)真正開始產(chǎn)生影響，但請放心，影響會(huì)非常大。通脹數(shù)據(jù)將會(huì)飆升。

 
Stuart Bunt
Most US importers preloaded before tariffs were introduced, most have a month or two of inventory. Until this is gone prices will stay fairly static. They may even fall as they offload mistakes, where they ordered too much. But then….
Shortages, runs on rare items, price gouging, import tariffs pushing up prices and domestic producers raising prices to match imports (what you thought Capitalists are charitable?)
The dollar is falling and will fall further as countries sell their US bonds and invest elsewhere.
The US credit rating is falling, bond rates rising, national debt raised by that “beautiful bill” to unprecedented levels at the same time as interest on bonds rise (this is supply and demand nothing the bank governor can do about it).
Inflation is inevitable, the normal response is to raise interest rates. If Krasnov blocks this inflation will get worse and the dollar will fall further. More capital will flee the US. More countries will move to other currencies, the dollar will fall further. Servicing the US debt even worse. Recession and hyperinflation may occur as in Germany 1930s. Krasnov will then invent wars to keep in power. Iran is just the start.
 
大多數(shù)美國進(jìn)口商在關(guān)稅出臺(tái)前就已預(yù)購了很多貨物，大多數(shù)庫存足以維持一兩個(gè)月。在這些庫存耗盡之前，價(jià)格將保持相對穩(wěn)定。甚至可能隨著他們錯(cuò)誤地處理訂單（例如過量訂購）而下跌。但隨后……
短缺、搶購稀缺商品、哄抬價(jià)格、進(jìn)口關(guān)稅推高價(jià)格以及國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商抬高價(jià)格以匹配進(jìn)口（你以為資本家是仁慈的嗎？）
美元正在下跌，而且隨著各國拋售美國債券并投資其他市場，美元將繼續(xù)下跌。
美國信用評級正在下降，債券利率上升，那張“美麗的鈔票”將國債推高至前所未有的水平，同時(shí)債券利息也在上升（這是供求關(guān)系，銀行行長對此無能為力）。
通貨膨脹不可避免，正常的反應(yīng)是加息。如果克拉斯諾夫（特朗普的俄羅斯代號(hào)）阻止通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹將加劇，美元將進(jìn)一步下跌。更多資本將逃離美國。更多國家將轉(zhuǎn)向其他貨幣，美元將進(jìn)一步下跌。美國債務(wù)的償還將更加困難。經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和惡性通貨膨脹可能會(huì)像20世紀(jì)30年代的德國那樣發(fā)生。屆時(shí)，克拉斯諾夫?qū)l(fā)動(dòng)戰(zhàn)爭以鞏固其權(quán)力。伊朗問題只是一個(gè)開始。
 

Sharon Backer
how much are you paying for ground beef i am now paying more for ground beef than i paid for steak a year ago
yes eggs are cheaper because bird flu has become under control not due to anything this administration has done
 
你買碎牛肉要花多少錢？我現(xiàn)在買碎牛肉比一年前買牛排還貴。
是的，雞蛋更便宜，因?yàn)榍萘鞲幸呀?jīng)得到控制，而不是因?yàn)楸緦谜龅娜魏问虑椤?br />  
 
Marilyn Guilkey
Are you locked in an attic somewhere with just a cell phone? Every time I go to the grocery store, prices have increased. Fruit (from Mexico) has increased), meat is outrageous. Fortunately, I do not shop at Walmart as I am sure the increase in prices would give me a heart attack! Learn to darn your tube socks and wear your t-shirts with holes in them!
 
你是被鎖在閣樓里，只有一部手機(jī)嗎？每次我去雜貨店，價(jià)格都上漲了。水果（來自墨西哥）價(jià)格增加了，肉漲價(jià)得太離譜了。幸運(yùn)的是，我不在沃爾瑪購物，因?yàn)槲掖_信價(jià)格會(huì)上漲到讓我心臟病發(fā)作！學(xué)會(huì)補(bǔ)襪子，穿有洞的t恤吧！
 
 
Yvon Tripper
There is a reason that Trump has gotten the nickname “TACO” (Trump always chickens out). He keeps announcing sky-high tariffs, then a few days later when he gets the blowback, he backs down and comes up with excuses to delay them. Then he announces even more tariffs a few days later, then chickens out again a few days later. That behavior is damaging to the economy because it causes businesses to stop purchasing, hiring and planning for the future until they have some idea what the costs to them are actually going to be. But announcing taxes and then backing down over and over again isn’t inflationary.
 
特朗普獲得“TACO（原意：墨西哥卷餅，又是“特朗普總是退縮”的縮寫）的綽號(hào)是有原因的。他一直在宣布極高的關(guān)稅，但幾天后，當(dāng)他受到反擊時(shí)，他退縮了，并找借口拖延關(guān)稅。幾天后，他宣布征收更多關(guān)稅，幾天后又再次退出。這種行為對經(jīng)濟(jì)是有害的，因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)導(dǎo)致企業(yè)停止購買、雇傭和規(guī)劃未來，直到他們知道自己的實(shí)際成本是多少。但宣布稅收，然后一次又一次地退縮，這并不是對抗通貨膨脹的方法。
 
 
Profile photo for Bill Mueller
The tariffs are not fully in effect. I suspect since gasoline prices have increased that would be considered inflationary. Automobile prices have increased which would be considered inflationary. Consumer goods prices have increased which would be considered inflationary. The biggest reason though is whenever an announced tariff start date was supposed to happen it was extended out 90 days or the 145% Chinese tariff was reduced to 30% or the tariff that was supposed to announced on electronics was removed. There is a reason our current President has earned the TACO name he cannot adhere to his announced tariff policies and if he does we will see hyperinflation of he continues like he is doing we will see stagflation that should be a treat for those of you that weren’t adults in the 1970s and 1980s.
 
關(guān)稅尚未完全生效。我懷疑，由于汽油價(jià)格上漲，這將被視為通貨膨脹。汽車價(jià)格上漲，這將被視為通貨膨脹。消費(fèi)品價(jià)格上漲，這將被視為通貨膨脹。不過，最大的原因是，無論何時(shí)宣布關(guān)稅開始日期，都會(huì)延長90天，或者將145%的中國關(guān)稅降至30%，或者取消了本應(yīng)宣布的電子產(chǎn)品關(guān)稅。我們現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)獲得TACO的稱號(hào)是有原因的，他不能遵守他宣布的關(guān)稅政策，如果他這樣做，我們將看到惡性通貨膨脹。他將繼續(xù)像現(xiàn)在這樣繼續(xù)下去，我們會(huì)看到滯脹，這對你們這些活在20世紀(jì)70年代和80年代還不是成年人的人來說應(yīng)該是一種享受。


Paul Fletcher
Because of the tariffs costing you more, you are not able to buy as much as you could last year, there is less demand. Hence inflation falls.
 
 由于關(guān)稅增加，你的成本上升，你無法像去年那樣購買那么多商品，需求也隨之減少。因此，通貨膨脹率下降了。

Jon Davis
Well, firstly, it isn’t consistently going down - there are several measures of inflation, but if you take base monthly CPI as your measure, there was a slight increase in the first couple of months of Trump’s administration and since then it has slowly sunk back to around the same level as under Biden.
Most people predict that inflation will rise due to tariffs, but there will be a delay. Retailers will run down stocks of pre-tariff goods before raising prices, manufacturers will likewise run down stocks of pre-tariff raw materials and components, and some larger companies may try and absorb the cost of the tariffs in the hope that Trump will change his mind again. It won’t last.
 
 首先，通脹并非持續(xù)下降——衡量通脹的指標(biāo)有很多，但如果以基準(zhǔn)月度CPI為衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，特朗普執(zhí)政頭幾個(gè)月通脹略有上升，此后緩慢回落至拜登執(zhí)政時(shí)期的水平。
大多數(shù)人預(yù)測通脹會(huì)因關(guān)稅而上升，但會(huì)有一個(gè)延遲。零售商會(huì)在提價(jià)前消耗掉關(guān)稅前的商品庫存，制造商也會(huì)消耗關(guān)稅前的原材料和零部件庫存，一些規(guī)模較大的公司可能會(huì)試圖消化關(guān)稅成本，希望特朗普再次改變主意。這種情況不會(huì)持續(xù)太久。
 
 
JD Harper
What kind of pharmaceutical are you taking that makes you think that prices are not increasing?
Wait until later this summer, things are going to get worse when Trump’s petulant nature takes full control and he starts putting tariffs on everything, including products imported from the Moon and Mars.
 
你服用了什么藥，竟然覺得物價(jià)沒漲？
等到今年夏末，情況會(huì)變得更糟，屆時(shí)特朗普的任性本性將完全占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，他會(huì)開始對所有產(chǎn)品征收關(guān)稅，包括從月球和火星進(jìn)口的產(chǎn)品。



Mary Andersen
Sales of discretionary items have declined. No one knows if tariffs have actually be collected, if they are still in place due to Trump’s whims. Food prices are still increasing.
 
可自由支配商品的銷售額有所下降。沒有人知道關(guān)稅是否真的已經(jīng)被征收，是否由于特朗普的突發(fā)奇想而仍然存在。食品價(jià)格仍在上漲。
 
 
Steve Arrian
The tariffs haven’t kicked in.
Economic activity is slowing down. Slow sales mean slow inflation.
IT workers are big spenders, but they are facing net job losses now, causing them to slow personal spending
Also, as housing markets reach frenzy level as in the last several years, buyers lose sight of affordability and over-leverage on their home purchase, leaving less for consumption. I remember my whole neighborhood was “house poor” in the 1970s.
Canadians have stopped buying our products, lowering demand which lowers supply 
20 million immigrants are too scared to spend freely.
Countervailing this recessionary environment, Democrat’s Obamacare has exploded medical sector jobs, while the landmark Democrat bills of 2021–2 have lit a fire under infrastructure’s ass.
 
關(guān)稅還沒有生效。
經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)正在放緩。銷售緩慢意味著通貨膨脹緩慢。
IT工作者是大開支者，但他們現(xiàn)在正面臨凈失業(yè)，導(dǎo)致他們放慢了個(gè)人支出
此外，隨著房地產(chǎn)市場達(dá)到過去幾年的瘋狂水平，買家忽視了購房的可負(fù)擔(dān)性和過度杠桿，導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)減少。我記得在20世紀(jì)70年代，我的整個(gè)社區(qū)都是“窮房子”。
加拿大人已經(jīng)停止購買我們的產(chǎn)品，降低了需求，從而減少了供應(yīng)。
2000萬移民害怕自由消費(fèi)。
為了應(yīng)對這種經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的環(huán)境，民主黨的奧巴馬醫(yī)改使醫(yī)療部門的工作崗位激增，而2021-2022年具有里程碑意義的民主黨法案在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的屁股下點(diǎn)燃了火。

 
James Allen
Manufacturing output is rising. Manufacturing jobs are growing. Money supply is shrinking. Energy production via cheaper domestic sources is lowering supply chain costs.
No one of these, but the sum of these improvements is providing downward pressure on prices.
Import
Also, imports comprise only 13% of US economic activity. And not all products are being subjected, and key players have already, or are soon to come to deals on lowering their tariffs, so our tariff increases won’t be imposed.
Then, most tariff increases won’t occur until the July 9th deadline.
And a lot of products are being bought in ahead of July 9th.
 
 制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出正在上升。制造業(yè)就業(yè)崗位正在增加。貨幣供應(yīng)量正在萎縮。通過更廉價(jià)的國內(nèi)能源生產(chǎn)正在降低供應(yīng)鏈成本。
所有這些改進(jìn)并非單方面的，而是疊加起來，正在對價(jià)格產(chǎn)生下行壓力。
進(jìn)口：
此外，進(jìn)口僅占美國經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的13%。并非所有產(chǎn)品都受到關(guān)稅影響，主要參與者已經(jīng)或即將達(dá)成降低關(guān)稅的協(xié)議，因此我們的關(guān)稅上調(diào)不會(huì)被強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行。
這樣一來，大多數(shù)關(guān)稅上調(diào)要到7月9日的最后期限才會(huì)發(fā)生。
而且，許多產(chǎn)品在7月9日之前就已經(jīng)被購買。


M Mesmer
According to American voters Biden created inflation as part of a Democrat plot to destroy America. . Now that he’s gone it’s obviously going to take time to get prices back to where they were during President Trump’s first term. Until the president has the authority to cancel Biden’s pardons Biden is still free and still able to raise prices using Hunter’s laptop they say..
 
 據(jù)美國選民稱，是拜登制造了通貨膨脹，這是民主黨摧毀美國的陰謀之一。如今他已下臺(tái)，物價(jià)顯然需要時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)到特朗普總統(tǒng)第一任期內(nèi)的水平。他們說，在總統(tǒng)有權(quán)取消拜登的赦免之前，拜登仍然自由，并且仍然能夠利用亨特的筆記本電腦抬高物價(jià)。
 

Bruce Watson
Unless the 700 major economists who endorsed Harris last year were wrong, tariffs do cause inflation. My guess is that they haven’t kicked in yet, plus Trump has backpedaled on many of them. Stay tuned.
 
 除非去年支持哈里斯的700位主要經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家錯(cuò)了，否則關(guān)稅確實(shí)會(huì)導(dǎo)致通脹。我猜測關(guān)稅尚未生效，而且特朗普已經(jīng)在許多關(guān)稅問題上退縮了。敬請期待。
 
L Belle
The economy as a whole was chugging along as in inflation was dropping from post pandemic economic policies. This year there was a slight bump from fear of the new administration’s policies but since there is no clear direction on economic policies and on again off again tariff, and edging near another Middle East war, things could get “hairy” or the economy will keep going as is..
 
 由于疫情后的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，通脹正在下降，整體經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在緩慢運(yùn)行。今年，由于對新政府政策的擔(dān)憂，經(jīng)濟(jì)略有回升，但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)政策方向不明，關(guān)稅反復(fù)無常，加之又一場中東戰(zhàn)爭即將爆發(fā)，形勢可能會(huì)變得“棘手”，或者經(jīng)濟(jì)將維持現(xiàn)狀。